Forecast and tricast
A forecast is a bet that names the first two finishers of a race in the exact order, and a tricast is the same bet extended to the first three. Bookmakers do not settle either at a price you take when betting. They pay a dividend declared after the race, worked out by computer from the starting prices, so you only learn the return once the result is official. Get the order wrong and a straight forecast loses, even when both your horses fill the first two places.
How forecast and tricast lines are counted
Every exact order you cover is a separate line, and each line costs one full stake. A reverse forecast is simply two straight forecasts, A then B and B then A, so a €1 reverse forecast costs €2 and only one half can ever win.
Combinations multiply faster than most punters expect. With n selections, a combination forecast holds n × (n – 1) lines and a combination tricast holds n × (n – 1) × (n – 2). Take five horses in a combination tricast at €1 a line and the slip costs €60, not €5, because there are sixty ordered triples to cover. The return is the declared dividend multiplied by your stake per line, which is why a winning combination can still pay back less than the slip cost when the favourites fill the frame.
Do the line count before you look at the dividend.
Forecast or tricast: which bet suits the race?
The two bets share the same settlement logic, so the real differences come down to how many places you must call and what that does to cost.
Forecast | Tricast |
|---|---|
| First and second in order | First, second and third in order |
| Three-horse combination: 6 lines | Three-horse combination: 6 lines |
| Four-horse combination: 12 lines | Four-horse combination: 24 lines |
| Smaller dividend, easier to land | Larger dividend for a harder result |
What forecasts get confused with
The usual mix-up is between the bookmaker’s Computer Straight Forecast and the Tote’s exacta, which looks like the same bet but is settled in a completely different way. The CSF and its tricast equivalent come from a formula run off the starting prices, while the exacta and trifecta are pool bets where the operator takes a deduction and shares the rest among winning tickets. A rough guide to the CSF is to multiply the winner’s odds by the second horse’s odds plus one, so 3/1 beating 5/1 points to about 18 to a one-unit stake, though the official figure also adjusts for field size.
Fixed-price tricasts exist too, and rules on when they revert to a computer dividend vary between operators, so read the terms on the slip.
