Match odds (1X2)
Match odds (1X2) is the three-way betting market on the result of a match: 1 is a home win, X is a draw and 2 is an away win. In football it is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so extra time and penalties do not count unless the market says otherwise. It is usually the first market a bookmaker lists for a game, and the one most other prices are built around.
What do 1, X and 2 actually cover?
The home side is always listed first, which is why it takes the 1. A bet on 1 wins only if the home team is ahead at the final whistle of normal time, X wins if the sides are level, and 2 wins if the away team is in front.
The detail that catches people out is the 90-minute rule. Bookmakers settle the market on regular time including whatever the referee adds for stoppages, and anything that happens in extra time or a shoot-out is ignored.
So a cup tie that finishes 1-1 after ninety minutes is a draw for 1X2 purposes, even if the home side wins it in extra time and lifts the trophy. If you want the team that goes through, the market you are looking for is usually called “To Qualify” or “To Win the Tie”, and that one does include extra time and penalties. The wording on these varies between operators, so it pays to read the market rules rather than assume.
Friendlies and other sports can carry their own settlement rules.
Where it turns up beyond football
Any sport where a draw is possible can have a 1X2 market, and ice hockey uses one on the result after 60 minutes of regulation time. Gaelic games can end level too, though how a given bookmaker settles a drawn GAA match depends on its own rules, so check them before you back the draw.
Turning the three prices into a margin
Every price carries an implied probability. With decimal odds you divide 1 by the price, and with fractional odds you divide the second number by the sum of both, so 2/1 implies one chance in three, or 33.3%.
Add the three implied probabilities in a 1X2 market together and the total always comes out above 100%. That excess is the overround, the bookmaker’s built-in margin, and standard markets commonly land somewhere between 105% and 115% in total. To strip it out, divide each outcome’s implied probability by the book total, which spreads the margin proportionally across the three results.
The table below works through two illustrative markets of our own making: a fairly even game and one with a strong home favourite. The prices are examples for the sum, not quotes from any bookmaker.
| Selection | Fractional | Decimal | Implied chance | Margin removed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even game: home (1) | 6/5 | 2.20 | 45.5% | 43.2% |
| Even game: draw (X) | 12/5 | 3.40 | 29.4% | 28.0% |
| Even game: away (2) | 23/10 | 3.30 | 30.3% | 28.8% |
| Favourite: home (1) | 1/2 | 1.50 | 66.7% | 63.0% |
| Favourite: draw (X) | 16/5 | 4.20 | 23.8% | 22.5% |
| Favourite: away (2) | 11/2 | 6.50 | 15.4% | 14.5% |
Reading the worked example
The even game adds up to a book of 105.2%, and the favourite’s market to 105.9%. Those totals are the margin, stated before anything else, and on these prices the bookmaker keeps roughly five cent of every euro in a perfectly balanced book.
Look at what the margin does to the favourite. Priced at 1/2, the home side implies 66.7%, but once the margin is removed the market’s own estimate is closer to 63%, so you are paying for about three and a half points of probability you do not get.
None of this tells you whether a price is good.
A selection is value only if your own estimate of the chance beats the margin-free figure, and that is a judgement about the match rather than the arithmetic. What I check first is the book total, because two bookmakers can show the same favourite price while one squeezes the draw and the away side much harder. The margin also compounds: string several 1X2 picks together in an accumulator and each leg’s overround multiplies into the next.
Markets often mistaken for match odds
Match odds is often mixed up with markets that drop or protect against the draw, and the difference changes what you are paid for.
Draw no bet removes X entirely: if the game ends level, your stake comes back, so the price on your team is shorter than its 1X2 price. Double chance covers two of the three outcomes at once, such as 1X for the home side or a draw, and pays accordingly less. A two-way moneyline, the default in sports such as tennis or basketball where a draw cannot stand, has only two results and so a different book total altogether.
On exchanges, the market named “Match Odds” asks the same home, draw and away question, settled on the 90-minute result. The difference is that you can lay an outcome as well as back it, and the margin there takes the form of commission on winnings rather than an overround in the prices.
Free bets placed on 1X2 follow the usual rule: if one wins, you are generally paid the winnings only and the free bet stake is not returned, though the exact terms vary by operator.
